◆ Live signal · Critical Manufacturing Dependencies

India Now Has a Structured Map of Where It Stays Import-Dependent

Signal in brief
  • The CMDI scores strategic imports on one 0-100 ruler (import value, supply risk, strategic importance, industrial multiplier, substitutability), making India's dependencies directly comparable for the first time.
  • Paired with a Localization Potential Index and Investment Attractiveness Index, it converts a risk list into a decision tool — separating what is worth localising from what is merely large.
  • Because it is formula-driven, dependency becomes trackable over time rather than a one-off audit — the basis for a recurring national dependency monitor.
  • The hardest dependencies (highest strategic weight) are often the least localisable, so the index's real use is sequencing scarce capital and policy.
Key claims
  • The CMDI scores strategic imports on one 0-100 ruler (import value, supply risk, strategic importance, industrial multiplier, substitutability), making India's dependencies directly comparable for the first time.
  • Paired with a Localization Potential Index and Investment Attractiveness Index, it converts a risk list into a decision tool — separating what is worth localising from what is merely large.
  • Because it is formula-driven, dependency becomes trackable over time rather than a one-off audit — the basis for a recurring national dependency monitor.
  • The hardest dependencies (highest strategic weight) are often the least localisable, so the index's real use is sequencing scarce capital and policy.
Primary sources

For years India's import-dependence has been discussed product by product and headline by headline. The Critical Manufacturing Dependency Index (CMDI) replaces that with one structured instrument: every strategic import is scored 0-100 on the same five weighted variables — import value (0.30), supply risk (0.25), strategic importance (0.20), industrial multiplier (0.15) and substitutability (0.10).

Why a single index matters

A common ruler makes dependencies comparable. A product with a high import bill but many suppliers is a different problem from one with a small bill but a single foreign source. The CMDI separates the two, and pairs each product with a Localization Potential Index (how feasibly India can make it) and an Investment Attractiveness Index (whether the economics work). Together they turn a risk list into a decision tool.

From list to living monitor

Because the index is formula-driven, it can be re-scored as trade data, capacity and policy change — so dependency becomes something you track over time, not a one-off audit. That is the shift the CMDI enables: a repeatable read on where India remains strategically exposed and where the exposure is easing.

What the signal means

The value is not any single score but the framework: it lets capital, policy and industry argue from the same map. The next question it forces is sequencing — which of the highest-scoring dependencies are worth localising first, given that the ones with the greatest strategic weight are often the hardest to build.

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