India's Deepest Chokepoints: EUV Photoresist, Leading-Edge Logic and Aero-Engines
- The highest-dependency products — EUV photoresist (CMDI 95), sub-7nm logic (94), combat aero-engines (92) — are the least localisable (scores 5-28): the core sovereignty mismatch.
- They share extreme supplier concentration (HHI 4,800-8,200) and single-country sources (Japan, Taiwan, USA), so a cut-off risk outweighs the raw import bill.
- These are long-horizon, partnership-and-talent bets — attack the narrow chokepoint deliberately rather than chasing volume.
- A concentrated single-source input can matter more than a far larger import with many suppliers — the index makes that visible.
- The highest-dependency products — EUV photoresist (CMDI 95), sub-7nm logic (94), combat aero-engines (92) — are the least localisable (scores 5-28): the core sovereignty mismatch.
- They share extreme supplier concentration (HHI 4,800-8,200) and single-country sources (Japan, Taiwan, USA), so a cut-off risk outweighs the raw import bill.
- These are long-horizon, partnership-and-talent bets — attack the narrow chokepoint deliberately rather than chasing volume.
- A concentrated single-source input can matter more than a far larger import with many suppliers — the index makes that visible.
At the top of the dependency ranking sit products where India has almost no domestic capability: EUV photoresists (CMDI 95, supplier concentration HHI 8,200, Japan), logic ICs at 7nm and below (CMDI 94, Taiwan), and combat aero-engine turbofans (CMDI 92, United States). Each combines a high import bill, an extremely concentrated supplier base and deep strategic weight.
The chokepoint mismatch
What makes these chokepoints, not just imports, is that their Localization Potential is the lowest on the board — 5 for EUV resist, 8 for leading-edge logic, 28 for aero-engines. The things India most needs to make are the things it is least ready to make. Chasing them first burns capital on the slowest wins.
Localise the chokepoint, not the volume
The strategic reading is to attack the narrow, high-leverage chokepoints deliberately and over a long horizon (technology partnerships, talent, patient capital), while not mistaking a large but substitutable import for a genuine vulnerability. A concentrated single-source input worth a few hundred million dollars can matter more than a multi-billion-dollar import with many suppliers.
What the signal means
These are Position-early or Watch bets, not quick wins — worth pursuing for sovereignty reasons but not expected to pay back fast. The near-term returns live elsewhere: dependencies that are still high but far more localisable.
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